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Is Now the Right Time To Invest in the S&P 500? 4 Key Market Signals To Watch

Fact checked by Vikki VelasquezInvestopedia / Michela Buttignol Understanding market indicators can help you decide when to buy into the S&P 500.Market headlines and a roughly 10% year-to-date drop in the S&P 500 may cause some investors to hit pause. But history shows that buying opportunities often arise during pullbacks. Since its inception as a benchmark index in 1957, the S&P 500 has weathered multiple recessions, crashes, and recoveries—returning more than 10% per year, on average, over the decades, and rewarding patient investors who tune out the noise.This article explains why the S&P 500 remains a cornerstone holding, which four market indicators matter most, and how to judge whether recent dips present a buying opportunity.Key TakeawaysThe S&P 500 index generates average yearly returns of around 10%, even while periodically experiencing market corrections.Long-term investors have historically found market pullbacks as valuable opportunities to purchase discounted assets.Holding the S&P provides diversification by spreading investments over 500 major U.S. corporations.During times of market instability, staying the course and employing dollar-cost averaging is often the smart approach. Reasons To Invest in the S&P 500Diversification The S&P 500 gives investors one-stop access to 500 of the biggest American-listed companies, which span 11 key industry sectors, together representing approximately 80% of investable U.S. market cap.This broad diversification also helps mitigate risk by preventing any single company or industry from having an outsized impact on your portfolio. Even when specific components may struggle, other parts of the index can deliver better results.Historical Stability The S&P 500 stands out as able to deliver sustained long-term stability. The index has weathered oil shocks, inflation, stagflation, the dot‑com bust, the Great Recession, and the 2020 pandemic, yet its average total annual return remains above 10%. This stability stems from its composition. The S&P 500 index continually adjusts its composition using market capitalization weighting and periodic rebalancing, so that the index evolves alongside economic changes by substituting struggling companies with new market leaders.The index's resilience ensures wealth-building potential even through difficult economic cycles.Long-term Potential Past performance of the S&P 500, while not a sure guarantee of future success, nevertheless supports the argument for investing over the long term. If you had invested $10,000 in the S&P 500 on the first trading day of January 2000, it would have grown to nearly $66,000 by the end of 2024.Historically, market corrections (declines of 10% or more from recent highs) have given investors room to buy more shares at better prices. The data confirm that each major downturn in the S&P was followed by an eventual recovery, often reaching new highs in the months and years that followed.Those investors who maintained discipline and patience during market downturns and saw these events as buying opportunities have consistently benefited.TipInvestors can buy an S&P 500 ETF or index fund to gain easy, low-cost access to the index in a single security.4 Market Indicators To Watch in the S&P 500Market indicators are numerical figures or statistical gauges—often derived from price, volume, or options data—that can help traders and investors assess the S&P 500's trend strength, risk, or sentiment.Volume indicators: Look at trading activity to estimate the level of conviction behind price movements. Volume metrics are used to see if prices have enough market participation to sustain trends.Trend indicators: Reveal the trajectory of prices over multiple time frames. Trend tools can recognize uptrends, downtrends, or sideways markets.Volatility indicators: Track the intensity and pace of price changes (in either direction), providing insights on market risk levels and possible turning points. Investors find volatility metrics useful for evaluating market sentiment and identifying stretches of excessive fear or complacency.Momentum indicators: Follow price movement changes to detect overbought and oversold market conditions alongside potential reversal points. Investors use these tools to identify acceleration or deceleration in the S&P 500's price movement, which offers early indications of possible trend changes before their occurrence in the price.CategoryIndicatorWhat It MeasuresWhy It MattersVolumeAverage daily trading volumeThe average number of shares or contracts traded per day over a defined period.High volume on rising days signals institutional buying conviction, while low volume rallies may lack follow-through. VolumeOn-balance volume (OBV)Cumulative sum that adds volume on up-price days and subtracts it on down-price days. A rising OBV with flat prices can presage a breakout, while falling OBV warns of distribution even if prices hold. VolumeVolume-weighted average price (VWAP)The average traded price for the day, weighted by volume, calculated intraday. Price above VWAP suggests strong buying pressure; trading below VWAP often indicates sellers dominating the session. Trend200-day simple moving average (SMA)The mean closing price of the index over the past ~200 trading days.Sustained price above the 200-day SMA generally denotes a bullish regime, while a drop below can signal a longer-term downtrend.TrendGolden cross / death crossThe crossover events between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs (golden cross when 50 > 200; death cross when 50 < 200).A golden cross is widely viewed as a bullish signal; a death cross often foreshadows further weakness.TrendAverage directional index (ADX)A smoothed indicator that quantifies trend strength (regardless of direction) on a 0—100 scale. Readings above 25—30 indicate a strong trend (either up or down), helping investors decide when to follow or sit out. VolatilityCBOE volatility index (VIX)The market’s 30-day implied volatility derived from S&P 500 option prices. Often called the “fear gauge,” a VIX above ~30 signals elevated uncertainty, while levels under ~20 imply relative calm. VolatilityAverage true range (ATR)The average daily price range (high minus low), smoothed over a set period (commonly 14 days). A rising ATR denotes increasing volatility and risk; a low ATR often accompanies range-bound markets. VolatilityBollinger BandsThe distance between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, which are set at ±2 standard deviations around a moving average. Narrow bands (low width) suggest a “squeeze” and potential breakout; wide bands indicate elevated volatility that may soon contract. MomentumRelative strength index (RSI)An oscillator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to losses on a 0—100 scale.RSI above 70 can indicate overbought conditions; below 30 may signal oversold levels—useful for timing contrarian entries.MomentumStochastic oscillatorCompares the current closing price to its price range over a specific look-back period (0—100 scale). Readings above 80 point to overbought territory; below 20 suggest oversold—crossovers between %K and %D lines can trigger buy/sell signals. MomentumMoving average convergence divergence (MACD)The difference between the 12- and 26-period EMAs, with a 9-period EMA “signal line.” Crossovers of the MACD line and signal line indicate shifts in momentum; divergence between MACD and price can foreshadow reversals. ImportantYou can find up-to-date values for these and other indicators via your online broker and from several free or subscription-based financial analytics websites.Should I Buy the S&P 500 During a Recession?Historically, purchasing after the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares a recession has delivered average returns comparable to—or better than—buying at other times, provided the holding period is sufficient (i.e., three years or longer).What Is the S&P 500 Forecast for 2025?Wall Street analysts’ targets vary: Goldman Sachs recently cut its year‑end 2025 forecast to 6,200 from 6,500, while UBS trimmed its outlook from 6,400 to 5,800. These downward revisions are due mainly to the economic fallout from Trump’s sweeping tariffs.What Is the Annual Average Return on the S&P 500?From its inception in 1957 through April 2025, the index generated a total return of about 10.3 % per year before inflation (and roughly 6-7 % in real terms).Which Is Better for Long‑Term Investment, the Nasdaq‑100 or the S&P 500?The Nasdaq‑100 is more growth‑ and tech‑heavy, which has produced superior long-term returns in the past, but also higher volatility and concentration risk. The S&P 500 is broader and historically less volatile. Investors seeking higher potential returns may favor the Nasdaq, but those prioritizing diversification often choose the S&P 500.Which Market Indicator Is the Most Accurate?No single indicator is foolproof, and any one indicator can produce bad signals from time to time. Combining trend (e.g., 200‑day SMA) with volatility (VIX) and momentum (RSI) improves signal reliability and helps filter out false positives.The Bottom LineThe S&P 500’s breadth, liquidity, and long record of compounding still make it a foundational building block for diversified portfolios. While policy uncertainty and slowing growth have pushed the index slightly negative this year, history shows that disciplined, indicator‑informed investors who buy during pullbacks are often rewarded over multi‑year horizons. Monitor volume, trend, volatility, and momentum metrics together—and remember that time in the market usually beats timing the market.
How Much Does It Cost to Backpack for a Year?

Fact checked by Yarilet PerezRené Mansi / iStockGetting away and traveling for a year can be exciting, but it can come with a hefty price tag depending on how you travel and the destinations you visit.If you're a budget traveler visiting inexpensive countries, you can backpack for a year for around $16,000. If you plan to be a budget traveler in more expensive countries, such as Western Europe, you may wind up spending $33,000 in a year.Key TakeawaysTraveling the world with a backpack on any budget can be a memorable adventure. How much you spend depends on your style of travel, the destinations you choose, and your pace of travel.Staying in hostels, buying groceries and cooking your own meals, and getting around on public transportation are ways to save money when you travel.To lower airfare costs, plan your flights on Tuesday and Wednesday, when prices are lower.Factors Influencing the Cost of Backpacking for a YearYour style of travel, the places you go to, and how long you stay in each location influence can influence much money you spend.Travel StyleAre you a budget-focused traveler, a spare-no-expense luxury explorer, or are you somewhere in between? Your travel preferences will impact how much you pay when vacationing for a year.“Budget travel combines exploration and savings. Budget travelers prioritize cost cutting in transportation, meals, and activities,” said Aixa Diaz, AAA spokesperson. “Midrange travel is a happy medium, usually great for families. Travelers who seek middle-of-the-road travel look for savings where possible but also spend money on experiences. Luxury travel is the highest tier. Luxury travelers splurge on lodging, meals, and experiences.”DestinationsNot surprisingly, where you go has a big impact on your total travel costs. Large, metropolitan cities can be pricier while rural destinations may be more affordable.“Cities like New York, Los Angeles, Paris, and London will generally be more expensive than smaller towns in the suburbs or outskirts, but the thing to consider is transportation,” Diaz says. “Big cities that are popular with tourists are easy to get to. Towns off the beaten path may be cheaper when it comes to lodging and meals but could be costly to get to.”Some regions—like Southeast Asia, however, have major cities that are affordable.“I always recommend to go to Southeast Asia, which is by far the cheapest region in the world to travel, but it’s one that I find the most fascinating, as it’s a melting pot of cultures, cuisines, and the difference between one country to another is a lot more marked than in other continents,” says Juan Castells of Planet of Adventures.Duration and Pace of TravelCynthia Matthews von Berg of Sharing the Wander traveled the world for three years with her family of four. The pace of travel made a big difference in their spending.“We found that by doing shorter stays in more expensive locations, we could stay longer in less expensive ones,” von Berg says. “We spent between one to two months in a country, alternating between fast travel, five to six locations in that time, and slow travel, one location, an apartment for a month.”Budgeting for a Year of BackpackingLow-budget TravelBudget travelers are in it for the sights and not the expenses. Staying in hostels, cooking your own meals, and getting around on public transportation all work for you.“Buying groceries at local markets and cooking yourself will save you money,” said Diaz. “For budget entertainment, look for parks or museums that offer free visiting hours. Sometimes just sitting outside and people watching is entertaining enough!”Mid-range Budget TravelMid-range travelers enjoy a splurge every once in a while and maybe a more comfortable accommodation. Diaz encourages mid-range travelers to plan ahead.“If you and your group know you want to see a Broadway show in NYC or visit Sagrada Familia in Barcelona, plan ahead and get tickets ahead of time to avoid disappointment,” said Diaz. “It also helps to do your research ahead of time and identify restaurants that you would like to try. For lodging, familiarize yourself with a map of the city and find a hotel that offers amenities you enjoy and is located in an area that offers dining and entertainment options.”High-end TravelLuxury travelers like the best and travel like someone who enjoys the finer things in life. You aren’t afraid to splash out money on meals and accommodations.“Luxury travel usually comes with high price tags associated with flights, business or first-class, hotels, suites or luxury short-term rentals, and experiences, high-end tours, multicourse meals,” Diaz says.Elements of a Sample Travel BudgetHow much should you plan on spending to travel the world per day? Von Berg and her family managed to do it for $150 a day, including flights and accommodations. She found that a hotel room could sometimes be cheaper than staying in a hostel.“As a family of four, we sometimes stayed in hostels, but often a room for four in a hostel is more expensive than a hotel room with two double beds,” she says.Von Berg saw the world with her family on a midrange budget. “We consider ourselves midrange in that we are not trying to eat all our meals from the grocery store, and we will not skip important UNESCO sites or major museums to save money, but we try to save where we can and travel as frugally as makes sense for our family,” she said.Von Berg found that food and dining-out expenses varied greatly depending on the country being visited.“In Paris, we struggled to eat a sit-down meal for under 90 U.S. dollars but could eat for a total of 12 dollars in Vietnam with dessert!” she says.Transportation costs also varied widely. “In Cambodia, a bus ride to get to the elephant sanctuary in Mondulkiri from Siem Reap is currently nine hours and 18 U.S. dollars. That won’t get you an Uber across town in Vienna!” von Berg said.For lodging, they tried to spend less than $2,000 a month through Airbnbs.“In places like Dubai, finding affordable rooms can be tricky. There, we ended up paying $552 ($182/night) for three nights, for a small room with one of the kids on a fold-out couch. The best way to keep accommodation costs down is to stay longer, but in some locations, there’s just not much flexibility,” von Berg said.People willing to travel on a shoestring budget can travel the world for much less.“If you’re the adventurous shoestring type, picture dorm bunks, street food, and the occasional overnight bus,” said Bryce Collins, marketing director at INTRO Travel. “In regions such as Southeast Asia, parts of Latin America, or Eastern Europe, you could live basically on roughly $30 to $50 a day, which adds up to about $10,000 to $15,000 for the whole year.”Midrange travelers spend more than that but still keep their expenses under $100 a day, according to Collins.“Prefer a little comfort without blowing the budget? A blend of hostels and cozy guesthouses, café meals, and the odd guided tour will push the daily spend closer to $55 to $95. Over 12 months, that’s in the neighborhood of $20,000 to $35,000—still manageable if you move slowly and pick affordable destinations,” Collins said.A luxury traveler can plan on spending much more for a year of travel.“If you want boutique hotels, frequent flights, and private guides, plan on at least $50,000 for the year,” Collins says. “Upmarket spots in Norway or New Zealand can nudge that figure even higher.”Travel insurance and travel visas are other items to keep in mind when you are planning a worldwide trip. Von Berg purchased travel insurance that covered her family for a year for $485. She purchased travel visas for her time in Southeast Asia.“Most places don’t require U.S. travelers to get visas,” she says. “To enter Vietnam, (travel visas) were just over $25 per person; Cambodia was $36 per person. We had to get visas for Indonesia as well. In the year 2023, that included Southeast Asia, we spent just over $600 on various visas and associated fees.”Tips for Reducing CostsTraveling In the OffseasonVisiting a tourist destination at a less popular time, such as the offseason, will save you money on your travels.“We visited Spain in December and got amazing deals on accommodation, fewer crowds at Alhambra, and cheaper flights. It felt like having Europe to ourselves,” said Isheeta Borkar, owner and author of Travelicious Couple.Finding Free or Low-cost ActivitiesYou don’t have to spend a lot of money to see and enjoy a travel destination.Visiting parks and monuments, checking out museums with free visiting hours, hopping on local buses, checking out farmers markets and local gardens, nature hikes, or walks along the beach are cost-effective ways to visit a travel destination, Diaz said.Utilizing Travel HacksAvoid weekends when arranging your travel times by air. “Book flights for Tuesday or Wednesday departures—those tend to be cheaper,” Diaz said.And you may want to consider showing up to a destination without a reservation for your lodging. “In many countries, especially in Southeast Asia, the owners themselves are looking after the business and are happy to negotiate lower prices compared to the online booking platforms,” Castells says. “I have saved normally 30 to 50% from the online rates when I do this.”Offering to volunteer at a hostel is another way to slash accommodation costs.“Just ask in any hostel, anywhere in the world, if they need some help, and the vast majority of hostels are happy to take on volunteers at all times,” Castells says. “You will get, in return, free accommodation, and in most cases, food as well.”The Bottom LineWhatever your budget, you can see the world and have memorable travel adventures.To stretch some dollars, travel to top destinations during the much cheaper and much less crowded offseason. Book flights on Tuesdays and Wednesdays when prices are slashed. Don’t be afraid to arrive at a destination without lodging for the night. You may be able to negotiate an excellent rate on the spot. With a little effort, you can lower your daily travel costs significantly.